Geopolitics

WORLD
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
18%
Probability
▲0.0% today
Yes 18¢No 82¢
$0 Vol
WORLD
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
6%
Probability
▲0.0% today
Yes 6¢No 94¢
$0 Vol
WORLD
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
5%
Probability
▲0.0% today
Yes 5¢No 95¢
$0 Vol
WORLD
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
87%
Probability
▲0.0% today
Yes 87¢No 13¢
$0 Vol
WORLD
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
27%
Probability
▲0.0% today
Yes 27¢No 73¢
$0 Vol
WORLD
Will Mohammad Khatami be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
1%
Probability
▲0.0% today
Yes 1¢No 99¢
$0 Vol
WORLD
Iran leadership change by December 31?
11%
Probability
▲0.0% today
Yes 11¢No 89¢
$0 Vol
WORLD
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?
14%
Probability
▲0.0% today
Yes 14¢No 86¢
$0 Vol
WORLD
Iran leadership change by December 31?
23%
Probability
▲0.0% today
Yes 23¢No 77¢
$0 Vol
WORLD
Iran leadership change by December 31?
23%
Probability
▲0.0% today
Yes 23¢No 77¢
$0 Vol
WORLD
Will Seyed Hossein Mousavian be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
1%
Probability
▲0.0% today
Yes 1¢No 99¢
$0 Vol
WORLD
Will Mostafa Pourmohammadi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
1%
Probability
▲0.0% today
Yes 1¢No 99¢
$0 Vol
WORLD
Iran leadership change by December 31?
26%
Probability
▲0.0% today
Yes 26¢No 74¢
$0 Vol
WORLD
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?
44%
Probability
▲0.0% today
Yes 44¢No 56¢
$0 Vol
WORLD
Will Hassan Shariatmadari be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
1%
Probability
▲0.0% today
Yes 1¢No 99¢
$0 Vol
WORLD⏱ 3d
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?
4%
Probability
▲0.0% today
Yes 4¢No 96¢
$0 Vol
WORLD
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
4%
Probability
▲0.0% today
Yes 4¢No 96¢
$0 Vol
WORLD
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
70%
Probability
▲0.0% today
Yes 70¢No 30¢
$0 Vol
WORLD
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
7%
Probability
▲0.0% today
Yes 7¢No 93¢
$0 Vol
WORLD
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?
53%
Probability
▲0.0% today
Yes 53¢No 47¢
$0 Vol
WORLD
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?
6%
Probability
▲0.0% today
Yes 6¢No 94¢
$0 Vol
WORLD
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?
81%
Probability
▲0.0% today
Yes 81¢No 19¢
$0 Vol
WORLD
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
3%
Probability
▲0.0% today
Yes 3¢No 97¢
$0 Vol
WORLD
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
64%
Probability
▲0.0% today
Yes 64¢No 36¢
$0 Vol