Geopolitics

WORLD
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
13%
Probability
0.0% today
Yes · 13¢No · 87¢
$0 Vol
WORLD
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
7%
Probability
0.0% today
Yes · 7¢No · 93¢
$0 Vol
WORLD
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
4%
Probability
0.0% today
Yes · 4¢No · 96¢
$0 Vol
WORLD
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
70%
Probability
0.0% today
Yes · 70¢No · 30¢
$0 Vol
WORLD
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
81%
Probability
0.0% today
Yes · 81¢No · 19¢
$0 Vol
WORLD
Will Mohammad Khatami be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
1%
Probability
0.0% today
Yes · 1¢No · 99¢
$0 Vol
WORLD4d
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?
1%
Probability
0.0% today
Yes · 1¢No · 99¢
$0 Vol
WORLD4d
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?
1%
Probability
0.0% today
Yes · 1¢No · 99¢
$0 Vol
WORLD
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
3%
Probability
0.0% today
Yes · 3¢No · 97¢
$0 Vol
WORLD
Iran leadership change by December 31?
17%
Probability
0.0% today
Yes · 17¢No · 83¢
$0 Vol
WORLD
Iran leadership change by December 31?
23%
Probability
0.0% today
Yes · 23¢No · 77¢
$0 Vol
WORLD
Iran leadership change by December 31?
23%
Probability
0.0% today
Yes · 23¢No · 77¢
$0 Vol
WORLD
Will Seyed Hossein Mousavian be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
1%
Probability
0.0% today
Yes · 1¢No · 99¢
$0 Vol
WORLD
Iran leadership change by December 31?
26%
Probability
0.0% today
Yes · 26¢No · 74¢
$0 Vol
WORLD
Will Mostafa Pourmohammadi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
1%
Probability
0.0% today
Yes · 1¢No · 99¢
$0 Vol
WORLD
Will Hassan Shariatmadari be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
1%
Probability
0.0% today
Yes · 1¢No · 99¢
$0 Vol
WORLD
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
7%
Probability
0.0% today
Yes · 7¢No · 93¢
$0 Vol
WORLD
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
70%
Probability
0.0% today
Yes · 70¢No · 30¢
$0 Vol
WORLD4d
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?
98%
Probability
0.0% today
Yes · 98¢No · 2¢
$0 Vol
WORLD3d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?
1%
Probability
0.0% today
Yes · 1¢No · 99¢
$0 Vol
WORLD
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?
11%
Probability
0.0% today
Yes · 11¢No · 89¢
$0 Vol
WORLD
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
2%
Probability
0.0% today
Yes · 2¢No · 98¢
$0 Vol
WORLD
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?
6%
Probability
0.0% today
Yes · 6¢No · 94¢
$0 Vol
WORLD
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?
47%
Probability
0.0% today
Yes · 47¢No · 53¢
$0 Vol